Passing Comments

Was the winner Obama or Hillary?

From what I’ve read in my morning’s online swim through the flood of news reports, the consensus is that it’s a split decision.

The facts

Hillary won the big states of New York and California, plus six others. Obama won 13 states, possibly 14 (New Mexico is still counting votes — Obama’s ahead slightly). Latest detailed update here on Bloomberg.com. State by state statistics in The Los Angeles Times here (click on name of state for dropdown table).

Some perspective

From some who are watching closely, Obama had the bigger night. (full disclosure: I voted for Obama) In fact, Markos Moulitsas Zúniga of DailyKos, titled one of his posts “Huge Night For Obama.”

“She [Hillary] didn’t exceed expectations anywhere. She lost states she led big in just a few weeks ago. She’s hurting for money. The calendar up ahead is tailor made for Obama. The momentum is there,” Moulitas wrote.

An example of Obama’s big mo, as it’s called, can be seen in the California results, even though he lost the state. Only two to three weeks ago, some polls reportedly had Hillary up by more than twenty points there. But by Super Tuesday, after only a brief time of campaigning in the state, Obama cut that lead to nine points (with 92% of the vote counted), see The Los Angeles Times page here.

Up next

Over the next few months, 26 more primaries and caucuses are scheduled. Puerto Rico, scheduled for Saturday, June 7, is the last. See The New York Times page here for complete schedule.

Coming soon: within the next three weeks (Washington, Louisiana, Nebraska, Virginia, Maryland,the District of Columbia, Wisconsin and Hawaii); then in early March, there are four more (Texas, Ohio, Rhode Island, Vermont); and on April 11, another big state with lots of delegates (Pennsylvania). For more details, see a Boston Globe article here.

Predictions are that Obama will do well in these upcoming weeks. Bloomberg.com has a statement from the Clinton camp:

“Clinton’s chief strategist, Mark Penn, acknowledged that his candidate may be at a disadvantage in the next contests. ‘We’re coming on to some states that are more favorable to Obama,’ he said, adding that Clinton would likely fare better in the Ohio and Texas primaries on March 4.”

The final decision

Most political experts I read are predicting that the Obama and Hillary battle won’t end until the Democratic National Convention in Denver, Colorado at the end of August. The decision will then come through what is called a brokered convention — and there hasn’t been one of those for the Democrats, according to the Wikipedia article, since 1952.

As Obama keeps saying, he’s the candidate of change. Seems like he’s started already.

UPDATE: It seems Barack Obama won a clear delegate victory over rival Hillary Clinton after all in yesterday’s Super Tuesday contest. According to a new post “Obama Claims Delegate Lead” on the Politico.com website, “The Obama camp now projects topping Clinton by 13 delegates, 847 to 834.”